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色五月色人阁 AI 不是来当职工，而是来当雇主的
发布日期：2025-04-08 12:55 点击次数：158
毫无疑问色五月色人阁，咱们处在一个 AI 的大变革期间。
每天都有新的 Agent 发布，新的模子开源。每天都有小 AI 公司正在变成巨头，而巨头们也在拿到越来越多的，致使令东说念主难以置信的钱。
或欣慰，或懦弱，或担忧。在通盘的大变革期间，咱们都未免多想。
在中国，APPSO 善良 AI 的共事们常常因为大洋此岸的新闻而「夜半惊醒」——而在好意思国，看起来从业者们也相通会因为 AI 的日月牙异而睡不着觉。
投资网红 Greg Isenberg 即是一个常常多想、夜不成眠的东说念主。他参与创办了上百个技俩，面前是投资机构 Late Checkout 的 CEO 和 The Startup Ideas 播客的主播。
昨天，Isenberg 在他的 X 账号上发布了一条长文，说我方深宵睡不着，想出了 46 条和 AI 辩论的「金句」。
其中大部分是他的个东说念主不雅点，甚是深嗜。咱们将这条长文编译分享出来，而且张开聊聊其中的部分念念考。
原文地址� �
1. GPT-4o 的图像生得手能与 ChatGPT 发布一样震荡，将会催生上千个百万至亿级好意思元的垂直界限软件商机。
chatgpt 4o image gen is as big as the chatgpt launch. probably will birth 1000+ $1-$100m/year vertical software businesses.
2. 刻下的 AI 生成内容，就像数字音乐早期的「MP3-Napster」期间。数百万创作家并没罕见志到，他们的作品将来将成为击败他们的兵器。
we ’ re in the " mp3 napster era " of content. millions of creators don ’ t realize their entire back catalog is being weaponized into their competition because of AI.
3. 在三年内，日期、邮件和 CRM 器具将经验根人道重构——不是渐进式的 AI 升级，而是范式级的重新遐想。
every calendar， inbox， and CRM will be rebuilt from scratch in the next 3 years. not " AI-enhanced， " fully rethought.
4. AI 不是来当职工，而是来当雇主的！首批具备不停东说念主类智力的 AI 系统将透顶重构劳能源商场，其影响力将远超工业立异。
i thought ai was creating digital employees. but it's more like digital employers. the first ai systems that can manage human workers will cause a restructuring of labor markets more significant than the industrial revolution.
5. 要是你的使命是招聘东说念主→磨练系统→系统替代东说念主去作念招聘使命，那么你不是 HR，而是一个挨次员，正在编写卸载我方的挨次。
if your job is interviewing people who will train ai systems that will replace people who do interviews， you're just a step in a weird recursive extinction.
6. AI 将难以范围化的作事生意，调度为兼具居品利润和作事溢价的重生意。能用 AI 作念 80% 使命的居品化解决有运筹帷幄，将成为新的独角兽企业。
ai is turning "service businesses that don't scale" into "product businesses with service margins." the new unicorns will be productized services with ai doing 80% of the work.
7. 不要洗沐于打磨居品。社群运营更难，更决定存一火。大部分创业公司死掉是因为没东说念主在乎。
building communities is harder than building products but everyone pretends it's the reverse. the reality is most startups fail because nobody cares.
8. 威尔 · 史姑娘吃意面？那是 739 天前的 AI 水平。遐想一下再过 739 天，生成式 AI 会进化到什么进程？
it's been 739 days since the will smith spaghetti video. imagine what could happen to gen ai in 739 more days?
APPSO 的延展念念考：在图像 / 视频的生成式 AI 方针，上一次要害破圈事件是 3 月的「OpenAI 吉卜力立场转移生成」，而两年前的威尔 · 史姑娘吃意面是上前次。
这两次事件有异同之处：换取的是都和著明文化气候 / 标记辩论，从而很容易地导致了破圈；不同则在于起先版块的吃意面视频过于神圣，十分「魔性」。这种失真感不但莫得影响东说念主们对 AI 坚决的预期，反而权贵加强了这个梗的病毒传播。
9. 开垦 AI 助理的东说念主，大多没用过真东说念主助理。着实的助理懂布景、记历史、重相关——而 95% 的聊天机器东说念主，三者齐无。
people building "ai assistants" have never actually had assistants. real assistants need context， history， and relationship. 95% of chatbots have none of those.
APPSO 的延展念念考：不需要用过助理，大多半用户如故以为 AI 助理很蠢了。有给它叮咛高下文、打磨指示的工夫，还不如我方去干了。
10. 3 年内，连最高档的客诉处理都将被 AI 取代，包括你面前认为必须东说念主工的复杂客诉。
most customer support will be automated within 36 months. not just tier 1 tickets， complex， multi-step resolution that previously required senior support staff.
11. 创业最危机的结局不是归零，而是被卡在「生涯线」上——饱和饱暖，遥远不够开脱。该止损照旧加注？我总在念念考这个窘境。
av天堂电影网the worst thing that can happen to your startup is mediocre success. enough to keep you going but not enough to change your life. most founders are trapped there. thinking about this a lot with respect to shutting down or doubling down on projects.
12. 对抗 AI 的不仅仅逍遥者——每个发现我方的数字踪影被擅私用作 AI 养料的东说念主，都会加入违犯。
the ai backlash won't just come from replaced workers， it'll be from everyone who realizes their entire digital identity is being converted into training data without consent.
13. 没东说念主会看用户条目。
no one has ever read a terms of service ever
14. AI 着实的颠覆在于「草图经济」：遐想无门槛，审好意思和创意才是硬通货。
the "sketching economy" is the real ai revolution. when anyone can turn rough sketches into production-ready designs， taste and ideation become the only scarce resources.
APPSO 的延展念念考：手脚翰墨和视觉的使命者，APPSO 关于这一不雅点深深赞同。AI 能生成看起来卓越有「念念考」味和「遐想」感的内容，用于非严肃场景是不错的，一朝放在生意和专考场景，生成截止的舛讹，以及审好意思的同质化、大中华是个很大的问题。
究其根柢，审好意思和创意是一种卓越「个东说念主化」和「东说念主性化」的观念。创作是创作家个东说念主的步履，但亦然和不雅者的一次交流。这种交流需要两边有着类似的东说念主生教化、周边的领略水平。
一种极点但经常正确的不雅点是：大众的审好意思水平遥远趋向镌汰。是以着实的审好意思和创意一定会成为稀缺资源。
望望试验吧，AI 并不是取代了能深度念念考的东说念主，而是让蓝本就懒得深度念念考的东说念主更不需要念念考了。审好意思和创意亦然一样，AI 在这方面的智力，只会让更多东说念主透顶失去掌执这些智力的必要。
15. AI 创业的真金白银，藏在吃透行业痛点的垂直应用里——不是在指示里加两个行业黑话就行的。
i dont know how else to say it， the money ( and opportunity for the avg joe ) is in ai startups is in vertical-specific applications that actually understand industry context. no， adding industry terms to your prompts isn't the same thing.
16. 消耗挪动建筑又回复了。从桌面→挪动→ AI 优先，咱们已干涉 AI 原生期间——下一批独角兽，必是深度整合 AI 的挪动应用。
consumer mobile is back in full swing. we went from desktop-first apps to mobile-first apps to now ai-first mobile apps. the next wave of $100m/year apps will start mobile-first with ai baked in from day one.
17. AI 「套壳」大战才刚打响。介于底层大模子和末端行业之间的中间商，将收割最大红利。而模子和行业应用自身终将沦为低价商品。
the ai middleman boom is just starting. companies that sit between foundation models and specific industries will capture most of the value while both ends get commoditized.
APPSO 的延展念念考：这个不雅点很深嗜，但也有一定的征询空间。行业里有另一种主流不雅点，和它竟然完全各异：将来通盘的模子都将居品化，而 wrapper 等纯工程层面的公司，不会比着实掌执底座大模子研发智力的公司走得更远。因为工程智力谁都不错领有，但买得起卡，磨练的起大模子才是着实的杀手锏？
天然，这两种不雅点都比拟极限。试验很有可能是折中的。即便大模子公司有再多的钱，它也不会比小公司小团队更敏捷、更贯通所处的垂直行业。千行百业不可一家把持，大概即是这个道理。
18. 咱们正在目击新工种的出生：AI 经过遐想师将成为新一代金领，专精于把东说念主类经过飘摇为 AI 增强的使命流。
we're witnessing the birth of a whole new job category: ai workflow designers. people who can map human processes into ai-augmented workflows will be the highest-paid consultants of the next decade.
19. AI 加快「赢家通吃」的风物：垂直行业的龙头之争，窗口期仅 6-12 个月，错过即出局，要么再等十年。猜度这我透顶失眠了� �
ai is creating winner-take-most markets overnight. the window to establish yourself as the go-to solution in a specific vertical is maybe 6-12 months before it closes for a decade. this isn't helping my sleep lollll.
20. 创业金点子：用 AI 重塑传统行业居品——这即是你的杀手锏。找一个已被考据的非 AI 居品，用 AI 念念维透顶重构，再找行业 KOL 引爆卖点。这注意赢。
really smart strategy to rebuild traditional products with ai as your unfair advantage， hiding the complexity behind familiar interfaces. basically， just look at proven apps that have no ai， make them ai-first ( if it adds a ton of value to end customer ) . use ai features ( don ’ t sell ai ) in creator-led marketing. this is the playbook.
21. 直达用户的渠说念是唯独的护城河。你的居品、技巧、团队都不错被复制，渠说念不可。
distribution is the only moat left. your product， tech， and team can all be replicated. your direct connection to customers cannot.
22. 临界点就快到了：对小企业而言，定制 AI 器具将比雇佣职工更合算。
we'll soon hit the tipping point where custom ai tools are cheaper than hiring humans， even for small businesses.
23. 很少有东说念主在征询这件事：AI 正让也曾「无东说念主问津」的企业变得抢手。当业务能自动化启动时，收购逻辑也变了，投资东说念主会追赶那些「买来就能自动收货」的公司。
nobody's talking about how ai is making previously "un-acquirable" businesses suddenly attractive targets. when you can automate operations， the owner-dependent business problem disappears.
24. 续上条：行将到来的中小企业收购潮，会比 2021 年的科技泡沫更夸张。当 AI 把运营老本砍掉了 60%，小企业会成为现款流机器。
the coming smb acquisition frenzy will make the 2021 tech bubble look tame. when ai drops operating costs by 60%， every small business becomes a cash flow engine.
25. 要是「氛围编程」（AI 写代码）是一个千亿好意思元的契机的话，那么「氛围营销」的商场会有多大？。
if vibe coding will be a $100B opportunity， how big of an opportunity is vibe marketing? ( you can follow my co-founder @boringmarketer for more on that )
APPSO 的延展念念考：上头这几条和中小企业、创业方针辩论的念念考都卓越值得参考。天然不是说径直随着他走，而是要是你的企业刚巧适当他的刻画，你应该筹商更积极地拥抱 AI，探索 AI 器具和自动化能否为你进步效力，致使让你不错对行业里的既得利益者和巨头们发起挑战。
天然，不要因为过度使用 AI 而让你的中枢职工和老职工们对你失望。要是你因为 AI 逆天改命，也应该让他们从均分得一杯羹。
26. 游戏使命室将会南北极分化：一边是 AI 智能体驱动的「内容农场永动机」，不错批量生成无尽的素材；另一边是专注中枢玩法的「宏构使命室」。无法转型的中间层将被淘汰。
Video game studios will separate into two distinct types: agent-driven content farms that generate infinite assets， and boutique studios focused on core mechanics. The middle will disappear entirely.
APPSO 的延展念念考：望望往时几年最受宽待的游戏和背后的使命室就知说念了。前者是你在短视频里常常见到的那种，素材鬼出电入但机制一辞同轨的放手、射击，以及羊了个羊等消消乐类，杀时刻的游戏。它们不招你待见，但商场远大。后者是小岛的《弃世搁浅》、战马的《天堂：转圜》、雾影的《二东说念主成行》等发布即封神的大作，亦然《Only Up!》、《Getting Over it with Bennett Foddy》、《Get To Work》这么的机制魔性、折磨到让东说念主砸手柄的寂静游戏。
27. 企业可能更闲适花每月几十好意思元订阅 AI 器具无尽生成素材，而不是 2000 好意思元 / 天雇一个生意影相师。生意影相赛说念凉凉。
Corporate photography is effectively dead. No company will pay $2K for a stock-style photoshoot when they can generate unlimited perfectly on-brand imagery for the cost of a subscription.
28. AI 能够颠覆企业销售模式：它能精确识别最好销售时机，锁定买家，并自动触发销售经过。
enterprise sales is being completely inverted by ai. using ai to identify exactly when and how to talk to the right buyer， and set off automations. ill probably talk about this more on a pod soon.
29. 我在念念考：AGI 是否会从互相衔接的智能体麇聚集「败露」出来？这些智能体麇集可能我方败涌现意料以外的特点，而咱们正在无声无息中构建着它们的「神经麇集」。
i wonder if AGI will emerge from interconnected agent networks that develop emergent properties nobody designed? we're building the neural connections without realizing it.
30. 天然生成式 AI 看似将成就万亿级商场，着实的「隐形金矿」其实在瞻望式 AI 界限。先见将来的价值，遥远高于创造内容。
while genai looks to be the $1T category， many quiet fortunes will be built in predictive ai. knowing what will happen is more valuable than generating new content.
APPSO 的延展念念考：面前的生成式 AI，生成的是它我方认为将会发生的东西。基于谎言语模子的 AI 会驯顺文本的限定和概率的限定。而瞻望式 AI（比如天气、地质、金融、社会工程学的垂类 AI）需要驯顺试验限定。后者是不是谎言语模子，也说不定，可能是基于，或者从谎言语模子精修特调的的各人模子。
天然，要是谎言语模子发展太快、太普及，致使成为实质的巨擘和总揽者——那么将会发生什么，亦然谎言语模子说了算……
31. 所谓的「AI 泡沫」，不外是 VC 们因为分不清 API wrapper 和真 · 创新而交的膏火。
the "ai bubble" is actually an excise tax on vcs who can't tell the difference between genuine innovation and repackaged openai apis.
32. 东说念主机交互行将迎来「东说念主格化立异」。当每个器具都能与你对话时，AI 的氛围和腔调，将会决定用户信任、忠心、留存率。
interfaces will become personalities. when every tool can talk back， vibe and tone will drive trust， loyalty， and retention. It's why I'm investing more in our design firm for the AI age @meetLCA ( you can follow for more insights on designing/taste/brand that will stand out )
33. AI 将杀死传统首页。将来的进口界面会因东说念主而异、因需而变、因时而动。
ai will kill the homepage. interfaces will get replaced by entry points that change based on who you are， what you need， and when you show up.
34. 用户不为「AI」买单，只为截止付费。
no one will pay for "ai"， they ’ ll pay to solve a $10，000/hour problem in 3 clicks. sell outcomes， hide the ai.
35. Google 的万亿帝国可能被 AI 拆解：旅游搜索、商品比价、腹地作事等等，每个细分界限都是待掘的金矿。
ai is unbundling google. every vertical search engine， directory， and comparison tool is a billion-dollar opportunity in disguise.
36. 将来的小企业圭臬成就：1 个创举东说念主 +5 个 AI 职工构成的「影子团队」，自动责罚财务、销售、营销全经过。
every small business will get a " ghost team. " automated bookkeepers， sales agents， marketers — run by one founder and 5 bots.
37. AI 生成内容导致了文化的同质化危机，当全球分享合并套模子，咱们得到的将是无尽访佛的「数字回声」。具有原创性东说念主类念念考将会成为最终级的附加值。歪邪会成为卖点，请保持歪邪。
ai-generated content is creating a monoculture of ideas. when everyone uses the same models， we get the same outputs. original human thinking is becoming the ultimate premium. be weird. weird will sell.
APPSO 的延展念念考：不单东说念主过度依赖 AI，就连 AI 我方也在接续加强对我方的依赖。
机器学习的教化指出，过度依赖生成的数据再次磨练，有可能会发生「过拟合」气候 ( overfitting ) ，致使导致模子使命机制熵增，使得生成的截止变得愈加不可靠，相背常理，失去代表性。
这不错类比为生物学上的嫡亲养殖，对本家遗传资源（基因 / 数据）的过度欺诈，更有可能导致额外的身分在生成截止中纯合。仅仅这种 AI 的「嫡亲养殖」截止不像生物学那么容易一眼看出来。事实上大部分东说念主不具备永别智力，而这会导致 AI 生成的额外截止被更多选用和再欺诈，最终变成一种脱离试验的逻辑闭环。
38. AI 不会颠覆学校，而是终了教师的「去中介化」。将来的神童们将绕过传统教师体系，通过径直获取受众、实施考据的方式来快速成长。今天的孩子都当 KOL，而创业者才会是 Z 世代孩子的期许奇迹。
schools won ’ t be disrupted by ai. they ’ ll be disintermediated. smart teens will skip formal education， build audiences， run experiments， and learn faster. kids say they want to become creators but creators are becoming entrepreneurs. entrepreneurship becomes the most popular profession.
39. AI 创业泡沫的截止：18 个月后，未必的 AI 创业公司将会像劣质小告白一样无东说念主应许，而剩下的两成会晋升为数字基建。
in 18 months， 80% of the " ai startup " category will look like spam. the rest will become infrastructure.
40. A/B 测试没真理了。当 AI 能在今夜之间完成 200 次迭代实验，何须再争论一个按钮该用什么花式？
conversion rate product debates are obsolete. Why argue over 2 button colors when AI focus groups can test 200 variations overnight?
41. 传统营销行将被 AI 选用，营销专员必须朝上游转移。论述品牌故事、营造私有氛围、传递品牌能量——才是将来营销东说念主的中枢竞争力。
most of what we call " marketing " is about to be done by ai. humans will move upstream into storytelling， vibes， and brand energy.
42. 本年最理智的招聘计谋？聘用一位 AI 运营总监，一个能搭建 AI 使命流、整合器具链，并委派实质效果的东说念主才。
the best hiring decision you can make this year? a head of ai ops. someone who can build workflows， glue tools， and ship outcomes.
43. 第一头估值十亿的 AGI 独角兽，初看必定像个玩物。通盘调动天下的东西都是这么。
the first $1b AGI startup will look like a toy at first. all world-changing interfaces do.
APPSO 的延展念念考：忘了哪个投资东说念主好像说过类似的话。
「当你的孩子拿着一个玩物说它什么都懂的时候，连忙查查背后公司的估值。」
44. AI 驱动的渠说念大于 AI 驱动的居品。二流居品一流分发，好过无东说念主问津的一流居品。AI 驱动的分发智力 > AI 驱动的居品力。在重观点经济期间，二流居品加上顶级流量 > 顶级居品却莫得流量。
ai-powered distribution > ai-powered product. a mid product with elite reach will beat a great product with no attention every time.
45. 用户对订阅制的反感仍然存在，而为有用截止付费的模式尚处于蓝海。率先选用后者的企业将赢得碾压传统 SaaS 巨头的齐全上风。
people still hate monthly subscriptions. outcome-based pricing is still in early days. implementing this will be a competitive advantage for lots of companies. large saas wont be able to compete with you.
46. 咱们正处在生意限定全面重写的黄金期间，它会持续多久我不明晰。但明确的是：那些率先把持新器具、构建受众社群的东说念主，领有齐全竞争上风。
i don't know how long this window stays open， but we're in a moment where all the rules of building businesses are being rewritten. for the people playing with these new tools， creating audiences and communities， you've got an unfair advantage.
写在终末：
生前何须久睡，身后自会长逝？
色五月色人阁